It was suggested to introduce mgwei, taking ETH gas price as oracle. One argument being that gwei returns to average after peaks.

So gas price is somehow predictable. What would then be the observed price of mgwei?

Let’s do a caricature and consider an oracle that’s 100$ every Monday and 10$ every other day.

Obviously, the resulting m-asset couldn’t keep the peg as it would imply a trivial winning trading strategy.

This doesn’t happen when the oracle is already tradeable elsewhere, as price already discounts such predictability. But when making new assets tradeable, it will happen almost always.

So my question is (and I don’t have an answer), should we think of m-assets (in general) as some sort of derivatives discounting predictability in the oracle? What would be their pricing?